财务失败和财务预警问题的探讨

本篇^论文包括:开题报告,中英文摘要,^论文,目录,文献综述,大纲 ^论文编号:CW019  字数:13575,页数:28

摘   要
     财务风险预警，简而言之，就是运用财务指标预测、预报企业的警情。财务风险预警研究一直是企业界和学术界关注的重点问题，如何建立有效识别、评估、预警的财务风险预警体系始终是国内外学术界探讨的问题之一。随着我国加入WTO，我国企业所面临的外部竞争环境越来越激烈，企业陷入财务困境和导致企业破产的数量急剧上升，企业普遍对抗风险的能力较弱。为了能够增强企业的抗风险能力，使企业经营者能尽早得知企业潜在的危险而采取相应的应对措施就显得十分必要。
本文首先介绍了财务预警的研究背景及意义，并对企业财务预警研究的理论及现状进行概述；然后对我国上市公司的财务失败及财务预警的现状及问题进行分析，通过以上分析可知国内外学者曾建立了多个预警模型，但国内关于上市公司财务预警方法的研究主要是借鉴国外的模型，存在着方法单一、理论框架不完善、模型适用条件不准确三个方面的主要缺陷，亟待建立基于现金流量指标的财务预警体系，分行业研究和企业自身预警两个方面取得突破。因此本文认为应基于现金流量指标体系，分行业建立财务失败预测模型对我国的上市公司进行预测，从而探索出一套适合我国上市公司的财务预警管理系统。
关键词：预警系统 Z模型 现金流量指标

Abstract
In a word, financial risk prediction is to use financial indexes to forecast corporate risk. The research of financial risk prediction is always main problem in business and academic circles. How to recognize, assess, forecast financial risk is always one of the world researchers’ focus. Along our country joining the WTO, our country businesses face the exterior environment to of competition is more and more vigorous. The quantity of the businesses sink into the financial distress and cause bankruptcy hoicked, the wide spread ability of resisting the risk is weaker. It is important for business to raise their anti-risk ability and can make business executive known the latent danger in business as early as possible and adopt to reply the measure.
This paper introduces the financial warning of background and the significance as well as its theory and actuality; and then the financial bankruptcy as well as the system of financial warning existing problems and actuality of China's the listed company for analysis. From the above case study, we could know as for financial affairs early warning research of the listed company, the domestic and international once established many financial warning models; but the most domestic’s research learned from the model of international and there are three aspects of shortcoming such as the simplex method, the non-perfectly framework theoretical and the non-accurate suitable condition of model. Therefore this paper should set up an integrated system of cash flow predicting indexes according to the character of industry the listed company being built their financial warning model to forecast. Thus, explore a special system of financial affairs early warning for China's the listed company.
Key words: the system of financial affairs early warning  Z-score model  Cash flow index

目  录

一、引言 ..................................................9
（一）、本论题的研究意义及背景 ............................9
（二）、研究思路和主要内容 ................................10
1、研究思路 ...............................................10
2、本文结构 ...............................................10
（三）、本文的创新点 ......................................11
二、关于企业财务预警研究的概述 ............................11
（一）、关于财务预警中的几个概念 ..........................11
（二）、财务预警的一般理论 ................................14
1、明确警义 ...............................................14
2、寻找警源 ...............................................15
3、分析警兆 ...............................................15
4、预报警度 ...............................................15
三、国内外财务预警的理论研究 ..............................16
（一）、国外财务预警的理论研究 ............................16
（二）、国内财务预警的理论研究 ............................18
四、Z分数模型在中国运用的得与失 ...........................19
（一）、成功案例：39家ST公司的Z分数模型检验 ...............19
1、研究时间跨度：2003、2004、2005年........................19
2、样本选取 ...............................................19
3、指标计算说明 ...........................................20
4、检验结果............................................... 21
（二）、失败案例：企业银广夏Z分数模型检验 .................22
1、银广夏案例介绍 .........................................22
2、Z分数模型检验结果及原因分析 ............................24
（三）、结合案例分析财务预警系统在中国遇到的困境 ..........26
1、财务数据的真实性 .......................................27
2、企业预警研究应与行业结合 ...............................27
五、对中国财务预警模型的建议 ..............................27
（一）、构建新的财务分析指标体系的设想 ....................27
（二）、考虑行业区别的Z模型修正建议 .......................28
1、在模型整体基础上加上行业修正值 .........................29
2、针对每个财务变量设定一个行业修正值 .....................30
3、模型中所选取的财务变量呈现行业性差异 ...................30
六、结语 ..................................................31
财务失败和财务预警问题探讨的文献综述 ......................32
附录 ......................................................41
参考文献...................................................42
致谢 ......................................................45

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