中国对美农产品出口变动的影响因素分析及对策

中国对美农产品出口变动的影响因素分析及对策

^论文编号:GM342 ^论文字数:11546.页数:15
中国对美农产品出口变动的影响因素分析及对策

摘要

2004年以来，中国农产品贸易连续出现逆差，中国由农产品的净出口国转变为净进口国。而目前，美国已经成为继欧盟之后的中国第二大贸易伙伴，农产品贸易在中美经贸关系中占有十分重要的地位。加上受到一些社会和政治因素的影响，农产品贸易经常成为中美双边贸易摩擦的焦点，因此，了解影响中国对美国农产品出口的因素具有重要意义。中美两国的农产品贸易以互补性为主，竞争性为辅，中国对美国的农产品出口的现状如何，具有哪些特征?影响中国对美国农产品出口额波动的因素是什么?本文将通过对中国对美农产品出口的现状及影响因素进行分析，运用恒定市场份额(CMS模型)分析方法，研究中国对美农产品出口，量化影响中国对美国农产品出口变动的不同因素。并且通过分析，确定影响中国对美国农产品出口的主导因素，以期为促进中国对美国农产品的出口提供决策依据，并为加强双方在农产品贸易领域的合作提供政策建议。
【关键词】农产品出口美国 CMS模型

Influential Factors Analysis of China’s Agricultural Products Export to America and Countermeasures

Abstract

Since the year 2004, China's agricultural trade deficit in a row, China have become a net importer from a net exporter of agricultural products. And at present, the United States has become China's second largest trading partner after the European Union , the agricultural trade plays a very important role in Sino-US economic and trade relations. With those social and political factors, trade in agricultural products often becomes the focus of Sino-US trade friction, therefore, the study on the impact factors of China's agricultural exports to the United States is very important. Sino-US trade in agricultural products is complementary mainly, and competitive secondary, how is the status of China's agricultural exports to the United States, and with what characteristics? What are the factors that affect the fluctuate of China's agricultural exports to America? This paper aims to analyse the current situation and factors of China's agricultural exports to America, using constant market share (CMS model) analysis, discuss of China's agricultural exports to the United States, and quantify the different impact factors of the fluctuate in China's agricultural exports to America. Through the analysis, we are going to determine the dominant impact factor, to provide basis reference for decision making on promoting China's agricultural exports to America, and provide policy advice on strengthening bilateral cooperation in agricultural trade.
【Key words】Agricultural products export America Constant Market Share（CMS）Model

一绪论 (1)
二中国对美农产品出口的现状分析 (2)
    （一）中国对美农产品出口的总体情况 (2)
    1 动植物产品出口 (3)
            (1) 园艺产品是动植物产品出口的最大宗产品 (3)
           (2) 谷物和饲料产品出口以稻米为主 (3)
           (3) 油料作物出口数量少品种齐全 (4)
        (4) 糖类、热带作物产品和烟草出口总量不大但品种繁多 (4)
     2 水产品和海产品出口 (4)
   （二）中国对美农产品出口的特点分析 (4)
        1 以劳动密集型农产品和加工农产品为主 (4)
        2 优势农产品出口增幅提高 (4)
        3 反倾销成为阻碍中国农产品对美出口的有力措施 (4)
三中国对美农产品出口变动的影响因素分析——基于CMS模型 (5)
   （一）模型设定 (5)
        1 模型介绍 (5)
        2 模型架构 (6)
   （二）数据说明 (6)
   （三）结果分析 (6)
1 需求效应 (7)
2 结构效应 (7)
3 竞争力效应 (7)
   （四）结论 (7)
四促进中国对美农产品出口的对策 (7)
   （一）提高农产品质量，增强其竞争力 (7)
    （二）充分利用比较优势，培养竞争优势 (8)
   （三）调整农业产业结构，及农产品出口结构 (8)
   （四）调整农产品出口贸易政策，加大其促进农产品出口的力度 (8)
参考文献 (9)
附录A (10)
附录B (11)

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