中国通货膨胀的货币性分析

^论文编号:JR047  字数:15189,页数:29

摘    要

通货膨胀对一个国家经济增长和人民生活的影响是不言而喻的。随着近段时间消费者物价指数（CPI）的高企，通货膨胀已经成为我国经济学界、政府和人民共同关注的话题。然而，尽管通货膨胀这一经济现象为人所熟悉，但是，对于通货膨胀的本质定义、成因和治理的政策建议却仍然未能有一个最终的共识。本文先是对国内外经济学界对通货膨胀的不同定义、分类和度量方法进行概括性的回顾，以得出对通货膨胀的准确认识。同时，总结我国改革开放以来历次通货膨胀，并与现阶段我国的通货膨胀进行对比。最后，对过往通货膨胀计量分析方法中的一些货币指标选取做出修改，利用格兰杰（Granger）因果检验，得出现阶段我国特定情形下的通货膨胀的主要成因是消费者的可支配收入增加和国家货币发行速度过快，并提出政策建议。

关键词：通货膨胀  货币性  格兰杰（Granger）因果检验  

目    录

1.导论································· 1

1.1研究的背景·····························  1

1.2 通货膨胀的研究方法概述·······················  1

1.3 本文研究的创新···························  1

2.通货膨胀现象文献综述及理论基础····················  2

2.1通货膨胀的定义···························· 2

2.1.1国外关于通货膨胀的著名定义····················· 2

2.1.2国内关于通货膨胀的著名定义····················· 3

2.2通货膨胀的分类···························· 4

2.2.1公开的和压抑的通货膨胀······················· 4

2.2.2爬行的、适度的、奔腾的和恶性的通货膨胀··············· 4

2.2.3预期的和未预期的通货膨胀······················ 4

2.2.4成本推动与需求拉动通货膨胀····················· 5

2.3通货膨胀的测度···························· 5

2.3.1西方发达国家对通货膨胀的测度方法·················· 5

2.3.1.1物价指数····························· 5

2.3.1.2理想财富指数（Rational Asset Index）··············· 6

2.3.2我国测度通货膨胀的方法······················· 7

3.中国通货膨胀现象回顾与现状······················· 7

3.1中国通货膨胀的历史回顾·························7

3.2 中国现时的通货膨胀现象························13

4.中国现时通货膨胀的货币性分析······················15

4.1研究思路·······························15

4.1.1数据和计量模型说明·························15

4.2格兰杰（Granger）因果检验分析····················16

4.3结论·································17

5.政策建议································17

致谢···································20

参考文献·································21

英文摘要·································22

附录···································23

成绩评定表································26

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