浅谈净现值法的现状及对策

^论文编号:GS816  ^论文字数:6533,页数:08

[摘 要]
 本文从投资决策的分析方法出发，以常用的投资决策的净现值法为基础。净现值法作为现代企业投资决策中最基本、也是最常用的一种方法， 更符合企业财富最大化的假设及长期发展目标。但在学习和实际应用中, 净现值有时会使公司的投资决策预期与实际结果产生很大的偏差。净现值法忽略了投资决策受不可逆性、不确定性和灵活性三种因素的影响，忽略了企业管理者可以通过灵活把握各种投资机会给企业带来增值，因此常常低估项目价值等出现一系列的缺陷。为解决这一问题，因而， 一种全新的投资决策分析工具———实物期权方法应运而生， 在面对较大的环境不确定性情况下， 实物期权方法则显得更为有效和科学。从理论上修正传统净现值法的缺陷和不足。
 [关键词]  净现值法  缺陷  对策  期权分析法
[Abstract]
 In this paper, the analysis of investment decision-making methods, the commonly used net present value of the investment decision-making based on law. Net Present Value Method as a decision-making in modern enterprises to invest in the most basic and most commonly used in a way, more in line with the maximization of corporate wealth and the assumption that long-term development goals. However, in study and practical application, the net present value will sometimes expected the company's investment decisions and actual results of the deviation. Net Present Value Method investment decision-making by neglecting the irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility of the three factors, ignored by enterprise managers the flexibility to seize the investment opportunities in a variety of value-added businesses, so often and so underestimate the value of a series of defects. To solve this problem, therefore, a new tool for investment decision-making analysis of real options method --- came into being, in the face of greater environmental uncertainty, the real options approach is much more effective and scientific . In theory the traditional net present value method to amend the shortcomings and deficiencies.
  [Key words]  net present value  limitation  countermeasure  material object option

目录
一、问题的提出 1
二、净现值法的弊端 1
（一）不能客观反映成本效益的高低 1
（二）不确定性的因素（没有考虑通货膨胀的因素） 2
（三）没有考虑固定资产升值及磨损 2
（四）折现率的确定较为困难 3
（五）忽视投资项目中的灵活及经营柔性 3
三、对策 4
（一）实物期权方法提高了决策和科学性 5
（二）期权分析法分段投资弥补了净现值法一次完成投资的缺陷  5
（三）投资项目的规模决策上期权分析法具有可灵活性及经营柔性 6
（四）净现值法是如何确定风险调整后的折现率 7
（五）投资决策的期权特性是一种选择权 7
四、总结 8
参考文献 10
致谢 11

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