浅谈人民币升值对我国经济的影响及政策建议

内 容 摘 要

  

在中国经济高质量转型之际和“十四五”规划开端之际，关注汇率的的走势特别人民币对主要经济体的走势是升值还是贬值，可以对应实施相关政策来抵御不利于经济发展的波动，让经济高质量发展，对稳定出口企业利润，调节国内经济结构，稳定物价、稳定就业等等都具有重要意义。我们应该未雨绸缪，提前做好准备，主动应对各种风险，坚持更高层次的对外开放，来发展对外贸易经济；坚持内外双循环，刺激需求拉松经济高质量发展；稳定金融市场，防范重大金融风险；完善经济相关法律制度，为各利益方增强投资信心；同时为应对未来汇率市场的双向波动，我们要加强宏观审慎管理和预期指导，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，保持我国经济的稳定恢复态势。

[关键词]：汇率；升值；影响

目       录

1导论······························3

1.1研究背景··························3

1.2研究意义··························4

2汇率概述····························4

2.1汇率的由来与发展······················4

2.2中国的汇率制度与发展····················5

2.3其他主要经济体的汇率制度··················5

3人民币对主要经济体的汇率走势··················6

3.1美元兑人民币························6

3.2欧元兑人民币························6

3.3日元兑人民币························7

3.4英镑兑人民币························7

4人民币升值的原因及影响因素···················8

4.1人民币升值的原因······················8

4.2人民币升值的影响因素····················9

4.2.1经济影响因素·····················9

4.2.2非经济影响因素····················10

5人民币升值对我国经济发展的影响·················10

5.1有利影响··························11

5.1.1有利于进口贸易·····················11

5.1.2提高我国人民在国外购买力···············11

5.1.3有利于促进我国产业结构调整··············11

5.1.4促使企业改革来提高竞争力和抗风险能力·········11

5.1.5有利于加快国内企业国际化和全球化进程·········12

5.1.6有利于缓解贸易矛盾··················12

5.1.7有利于实现人民币成为国际通用货币进程·········12

5.2不利影响··························12

5.2.1不利于出口贸易····················12

5.2.2热钱冲击金融市场稳定并影响融资稳定效果········13

5.2.3不利于引进对内直接投资和国内旅游业··········13

5.2.4是我国巨额外汇储备缩水················13

6对经济影响的政策及建议·····················14

6.1建立健全法制化社会和完善外汇市场法律制度··········14

6.2建立试点区域来为外汇高水平开放积累经验···········14

6.3培养专业人才普及避险金融工具和风险教育···········14

6.4加强对游资的监管和完善QFII管理制度············15

6.5引导国内企业技术创新来减少贸易摩擦·············15

7未来全球不确定环境下汇率及经济发展考虑（结论）·········16