沪市公司IPO的绩效分析
[摘要]通过对1999年和2000年间上市沪A股公司实证研究，发现这两年间上市的沪A股存在业绩下滑现象。结合中国持有制度背景，讨论公司IPO业绩下滑影响因素。
[关键词] IPO 业绩效应 上市公司
一，IPO业绩效应的一般理论
首次公开发行股票（Initially Public Offerings简称IPO）的公司，其经营业绩在上市前后会有怎样变化，是什么原因造成这些变化的发生，是长期以来财务界，金融界十分关注的问题。从理论上来说，公司往往在进入快速成长阶段上市，上市时获得了一笔可观的股权资本，提高资信等级，改善了资本结构，上市后还可以在资本市场上持续融资，增强了竞争环境下抵御支付风险的财务能力；同时从上市前的资本约束，投资不足状态中解脱出来，在把握战略投资机会和起因战略资源方面处于有利的竞争地位。所以公司在上市后的三至四年内，应该实现与资产规模扩张速度一致甚至更高的经营业绩目标。
但是国外学者的研究表明，公司上市当年经营业绩显著低于上市前一年，即公司上市后难以维持其上市前的业绩水平，上市后经营业绩显著下降。关于公司上市前后业绩变化的理论预期与实证结果的背离，称之为“IPO业绩效应”。
对其原因，国外学者一般认为有以下几方面原因：
（一）代理成本假说。主要是管理层与外部鼓动的利益冲突和代理成本的增加，出现将自由现金流投资与不利于股东价值最大化的投资行为，导致企业业绩下降。
（二）报表粉饰假说。企业管理层为了更多的融资和上市成功，美化或高估其上市前的会计利润，使上市后的实际经营业绩难以超过上市前。
（三）“机会之窗“假说。管理层利用信息不对称选择在公司业绩最好的时机上市。
（四）内部控制失效假说。由于公司内部控制系统失效，使产业内各企业过度投资，形成能力严重过剩，引起价格战，从而导致经营业绩下滑。
我国股市字创立以来，发展迅速。大量数据表明，尽管大部分上市公司都是各地筛选好的企业，但整体经营业绩财务指标仍呈现下降趋势，陷入“一年绩优，二年绩平，三年亏损，四年重组”的怪圈。借国内外的研究方法，我们想对上市公司业绩表现及其原因进行研究。
二，沪市公司IPO业绩效应的表现
1．样本的选择
我们选取的是1999年和2000年的只首发沪A股的公司作样本。并且样本要满足以下这个条件：1998年到2004年间，各年的总资产收益率（净利润/总资产）必须在（-30%，70%）这个区间范围内。这样选择的原因是既可以排除大亏一次式赢余管理的干扰，又可以消除异样值的影响。而且保证了有足够的样本进行统计检验。最终我们选择的90个样本，其中99年样本49个，00年样本41个。
2．研究方法
构造了一个变量Y来衡量一家公司上市后的业绩变化幅度。Y=[上市前两年（即-2年）与前一年（即-1年）的总资产收益率的均值]-[上市后第二年（即2年）与上市后第三年（即3年）的总资产收益率的均值]。考虑到总资产收益率代表企业经营业绩，筹集资金投资效益可能滞后，所以采用上市后第二年和第三年的均值。
3．数据来源
上市前后的数据来源均从巨潮信息网获得。
4．结果显示
通过得到的数据表明，所有样本的Y值都大于0，即上市后的业绩与上市前相比都下滑了。当然可能存在一些宏观因素的影响。不同年份上市的公司在上市前后的经营业绩的变化会受到不同年份宏观经济变迁的影响。所以我们采用的比较均值法，尽管还不能完全剔除宏观因素的影响，但足以说明我国上市公司确实也存在上市后业绩下滑的问题。
三，IPO前后公司业绩显著下滑的影响
1．建立模型
（-2年与-1年总资产收益率均值）-（2年与3年的相应均值）
上市时募集资金/上市前一年末净资产
上市后三年内有配股为1，否为0
上市当年第一大股东持股比例大于50%为1，否为0
用于偿还上市前债务的募集资金/总募集资金
上市前年末的总资产大于50亿为大规模取1，否为0
2．研究假设及其相关解释
（1）上市是募集资金额对企业上市前后业绩变化的影响
ⅰ）提出的原因：首先许多企业为了用足上市发行额度，在募集资金使用计划中回采用多种手段，虚构投资项目，夸大投资需求，从而夸大投资项目的资金需求量，以尽可能多地募集资金。导致募集资金超过了公司运营资金的能力，资金严重过剩。其次有些企业在上市前有很多债务没有偿还。上市后用大量募集资金来偿还债务，再将剩余部分用来投资，造成投资金额不充足等现象发生。另外募集的资金会延迟产生经济效益。这几方面都会导致经营业绩下降。
ⅱ）提出假设H1：企业募集资金与首发前一年末净资产比值越大，业绩下降的幅度越大 。
假设H2：用于偿还上市前债务的募集资金占总募集资金比例越大，业绩下降的幅度越大。
（2）配股对首次发行公司上市前后业绩变化的影响
ⅰ）提出的原因：如果公司获取了在三年内的配股资格，在发行时就有可能对各年业绩进行平滑，而不会将利润全部集中在首发当年或之前。
ⅱ）提出假设H3：公司股票首次发行后三年内如果配股，则公司业绩下降幅度的要小于无配股的公司。
（3）第一大股东持股比例对首发公司上市前后业绩变化的影响
ⅰ）提出的原因：由于我国特有的非流通股股东控股现象，大股东处于自身利益考虑而进行上市前的赢余管理，可能导致业绩下滑。上市时第一大股东持股比例越高，老股东达到筹资目的且牺牲较小控制权的动机越高。大股东有可能利于控股地位从上市公司抽区利润和资金。
ⅱ）提出假设H4：企业上市时的股权越集中，经营业绩下滑的幅度越大。
（4）公司规模大小对其上市前后业绩变化的影响
ⅰ）提出的原因：公司规模不同，在抗风险和灵活性方面则不同。规模大的上市公司一般处于行业领先地位，其收益较稳定，相比而言，规模小的公司则处于不利地位。
ⅱ）提出假设H5：上市时总资产规模与上市前后业绩下降幅度有关。
3．回归结果
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/06/03 Time: 11:01
Sample: 1 90
Included observations: 89
Excluded observations: 1
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
X1 0.025132 0.004662 5.391118 0.0000
X2 -0.015515 0.011590 -1.338741 0.1893
X3 0.011178 0.006578 1.699456 0.0981
X4 0.019421 0.008372 2.319740 0.0263
X5 0.013679 0.009297 1.471337 0.1501
R-squared 0.325583 Mean dependent var 0.022380
Adjusted R-squared 0.248507 S.D. dependent var 0.025141
S.E. of regression 0.021794 Akaike info criterion -4.697862
Sum squared resid 0.016625 Schwarz criterion -4.486752
Log likelihood 98.95723 Durbin-Watson stat 2.062486
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/06/03 Time: 11:12
Sample: 1 90
Included observations: 89
Excluded observations: 1
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
X1 0.023330 0.010999 2.121124 0.0413
X2 -0.015744 0.011820 -1.331937 0.1917
X3 0.010731 0.007110 1.509229 0.1405
X4 0.020249 0.009638 2.100907 0.0431
X5 0.012851 0.010473 1.227082 0.2282
C 0.002510 0.013830 0.181509 0.8570
R-squared 0.326236 Mean dependent var 0.022380
Adjusted R-squared 0.227153 S.D. dependent var 0.025141
S.E. of regression 0.022102 Akaike info criterion -4.648830
Sum squared resid 0.016609 Schwarz criterion -4.395498
Log likelihood 98.97661 F-statistic 3.292554
Durbin-Watson stat 2.036391 Prob(F-statistic) 0.015680
总体上看，实证结果部分支持我们提出的假设：
公司上市后业绩下降幅度，与上市时募资总额与上市前一年净资产的比值成正比。原因：筹资金的滞后性，即是上市后的二，三年都仍未带来足够利润。
公司上市后业绩下降幅度，与用于偿债筹资金与总筹资金的比值成正比。筹资金用于偿还上市前的债务，而不是用于经营，会导致公司在上市后的业绩下滑。
三年内有配股公司的业绩下降幅度小于无配股公司。说明公司在能获得首发的前提下，在发行时就会对各年业绩进行平滑。
第一大股东持股数与公司规模大小对公司业绩下滑的影响不显著。
回归的显著系数不高，原因：有很多未考虑的变量。比如公司上市前的评估增值率对其业绩的影响，公司管理层把筹得的部分资金用于消费而没有用来投资等。
以上回归均通过了各项检验。
1．多重共线性的检验
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5
X1 1.000000 0.071047 -0.178757 -0.428682 -0.362140
X2 0.071047 1.000000 2.89E-17 -0.032236 -0.060239
X3 -0.178757 2.89E-17 1.000000 0.070067 0.149215
X4 -0.428682 -0.032236 0.070067 1.000000 0.046749
X5 -0.362140 -0.060239 0.149215 0.046749 1.000000
通过以上的简单相关系数矩阵看出，各解释变量之间的相关性不大，则模型不存在多重共线性的影响。
2．异方差的检验
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic 0.739836 Probability 0.640165
Obs*R-squared 5.571826 Probability 0.590535
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/06/03 Time: 12:48
Sample: 1 90
Included observations: 89
Excluded observations: 1
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.000497 0.000609 0.815616 0.4207
X1 -0.000402 0.001110 -0.362311 0.7195
X1^2 0.000434 0.000565 0.767603 0.4484
X2 -0.000101 0.000403 -0.251757 0.8028
X3 0.000116 0.000254 0.454559 0.6525
X4 -0.000889 0.000807 -1.102012 0.2787
X4^2 0.000369 0.000513 0.719121 0.4773
X6 0.000160 0.000376 0.423992 0.6744
R-squared 0.139296 Mean dependent var 0.000415
Adjusted R-squared -0.048983 S.D. dependent var 0.000719
S.E. of regression 0.000737 Akaike info criterion -11.41227
Sum squared resid 1.74E-05 Schwarz criterion -11.07449
Log likelihood 236.2453 F-statistic 0.739836
Durbin-Watson stat 1.317367 Prob(F-statistic) 0.640165
从WHITE检验的结果来看，Obs*R-squared=5.571826<(0.05)=14.0671,说明模型不存在异方差的问题。
3．自相关性的检验
Durbin-Watson stat=2.036391，极为接近2，可以据此判断模型不存在随机干扰项自相关的问题。
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计量经济学课程^论文
沪市公司IPO绩效分析
附表1 ：原始数据
2000 2001
净利润 总资产 净利润 总资产
600523 37,219,413.65 807,790,574.79 19,103,223.52 108,827,022.25
600506 27,345,145.43 319,400,533.91 29,716,025.17 611,926,094.77
600548 339,223,834.00 5,931,176,373.00 401,936,897.00 6,995,999,210.00
600331 36,571,048.71 521,446,977.92 22,238,564.54 1,145,447,720.32
600567 1,806.71 33,755.62 2,303.50 66,627.67
600391 30,176,032.48 376,744,837.87 35,124,542.66 663,312,716.83
600011 2,644,226,947 42,411,333,851 3,636,064,244 47,229,708,718
600361 31,542,327.39 432,276,371.73 45,817,353.87 1,540,299,162.04
600322 64,404,291.08 2,563,699,215.91 66,301,936.10 3,059,129,286.02
600596 23,035,858.52 597,899,710.76 20,482,849.16 930,993,924.26
600448 33,600,876.37 818,451,764.67 22,816,122.62 1,289,880,042.71
600508 113,575,647.97 1,005,586,498.85 165,454,534.37 1,902,588,812.40
600599 11854714.03 131947190.47 17790096.31 350247095.82
600519 251,103,580.63 1,268,856,244.90 328,290,723.14 3,463,388,734.98
600539 30,730,021.67 511,255,387.64 37,227,836.98 1,050,270,596.53
600418 81,654,875.03 651,413,668.87 88,962,410.67 1,371,371,007.72
600498 111,071,404.10 1,409,682,790.15 167,435,299.44 3,026,427,577.97
600566 14,546,817.04 223,382,952.91 17,701,866.29 582,650,722.58
600569 492262987.45 5089480677.66 470730259.54 6068533586.00
600346 13,805,052.62 334,537,103.17 15,952,621.88 530,270,936.83
600028 16,154,000,000 340,918,000,000.00 14,018,000,000.00 360,294,000,000.00
600556 10,133,219.69 267,843,584.16 15,180,753.47 788,877,537.94
600385 9,359,488.14 422,462,769.56 4,754,302.01 440,133,073.78
600372 90,754,752.72 2,071,888,942.89 86,529,340.03 3,287,764,438.22
600530 50,615,855.64 448,112,095.82 54,640,914.53 1,174,748,264.57
600419 12,629,669.25 248,633,462.93 13,569,777.31 403,397,127.37
600311 44,042,432.17 399,055,346.47 64,777,145.37 1,244,658,168.85
600488 65,583,454.97 502,776,628.75 75,362,245.23 1,134,021,405.55
600501 22,163,321.83 413,606,412.38 33,009,067.82 792,746,435.67
600468 16750877.31 366510527.8 5950581.01 561425046.3
600589 26,423,951.85 269,563,223.43 35,227,474.65 688,375,246.37
600380 155,999,285.85 739,794,877.87 200,618,059.90 2,327,350,377.63
600329 86,474,000 2,512,656,000 64,441,000 2,719,735,000
600395 49,440,139.36 730,289,182.31 68,594,330.31 1,391,446,321.47
600528 169,930,075.78 2,020,279,822.36 164,151,937.38 3,471,109,479.57
600321 61,371,680.00 281,021,660.00 61,904,180.00 1,295,455,710.00
600568 2,367,684.79 124,129,131.86 13,867,134.12 460,314,776.92
600381 13,949,326.33 295,016,625.86 19,468,512.38 598,919,728.52
600295 206,399,189 3,401,631,873 230,683,893 3,911,307,692
600356 36,539,757.32 663,750,882.38 45,694,782.87 656,006,785.57
600383 84,163,013.70 1,132,508,511.25 120,277,004.32 2,269,934,364.28
600363 17,110,000.00 700,600,000.00 17,030,000.00 701,300,000.00
2003 2004
总资产 净利润 总资产 净利润
1,005,367,182.20 4,415,964.17 1,051,179,898.50 1,684,585.38
712,468,006.56 16,150,216.93 669,789,690.72 804,797.85
7,105,308,870.56 852,037,109.31 7,518,609,524.83 484,564,032.97
2,255,667,983.16 46,428,499.41 2,792,464,188.93 96,739,019.61
1,203,213,100.00 48,595,600.00 1,727,036,700.00 48,015,700.00
657,312,704.44 25,971,643.78 676,427,941.18 20,702,912.19
53,276,965,016.00 5,457,142,551.00 71,324,978,078.00 5,389,057,047.00
2,210,856,307.90 64,572,895.24 2,277,146,858.01 97,249,562.29
3,178,469,898.98 20,880,374.79 3,550,169,182.71 15,718,668.60
1,136,126,682.04 35,115,702.90 1,454,760,882.46 137,280,629.05
1,306,040,651.08 2,270,566.26 1,028,780,648.98 -103,110,677.91
2,723,636,352.25 173,731,456.67 3,439,490,507.84 363,575,031.31
544,795,700.00 1,008,300.00 546,711,000.00 2,126,000.00
4,956,365,810.85 586,747,838.27 6,373,652,963.57 820,553,997.19
1,122,815,682.87 23,626,285.28 1,204,286,895.98 24,712,199.56
2,505,332,100.00 207,370,900.00 3,765,438,500.00 321,438,300.00
3,683,626,432.57 25,651,514.39 3,632,581,244.05 35,160,727.82
650,391,551.55 7,402,611.24 697,903,884.80 7,427,604.16
7,468,795,189.23 824,392,203.30 8,939,752,864.41 732,018,142.38
563,445,176.64 4,628,465.39 565,787,963.86 4,830,637.37
390,213,000,000.00 19,011,000,000.00 460,081,000,000.00 32,275,000,000.00
1,420,126,044.21 57,321,856.06 1,752,042,824.74 78,228,815.89
240,811,998.03 -76,431,576.02 232,053,117.77 3,024,626.47
3,885,578,271.31 50,722,320.63 3,633,666,685.30 -48,008,147.56
1,604,701,789.54 57,022,956.69 1,506,015,781.34 31,075,131.26
513,619,346.10 10,255,142.90 546,851,379.60 -13,232,125.70
1,431,256,488.02 56,588,442.21 1,468,626,949.87 50,159,143.42
1,604,898,191.92 90,075,722.98 1,528,578,144.08 100,858,183.01
1,058,399,661.19 8,250,867.14 1,469,888,841.40 34,866,653.93
788,606,250.80 10,179,193.39 793,977,981.13 16,360,371.70
830,924,769.35 53,062,784.48 1,072,077,752.37 54,448,037.16
4,415,827,026.70 140,275,065.49 4,413,648,169.31 97,263,412.27
3,797,116,000.00 86,459,000.00 3,913,234,000.00 64,023,000.00
1,523,470,093.47 74,134,923.63 1,838,859,491.80 77,717,369.09
4,242,059,242.26 70,898,942.41 5,706,443,578.15 70,133,105.16
1,224,989,692.85 32,833,857.59 1,561,970,678.01 29,400,439.38
567,921,190.77 11,090,705.37 771,638,014.17 8,756,158.20
1,181,490,109.25 27,557,871.58 1,713,444,081.31 18,861,585.50
5,184,099,551.00 175,232,381.00 6,824,403,838.00 162,947,858.00
947,092,663.65 69,706,110.49 1,156,894,903.18 74,581,921.02
4,819,133,278.32 165,550,077.89 5,860,637,249.07 246,254,839.98
1,546,786,900.00 47,920,300.00 1,725,559,700.00 38,309,000.00
上市募集资金 支付债务现金 筹资总额
327554200 273,008,379.26 620,666,678.60
231412900 55,400,000.00 344,938,503.68
587140000 540,000,426 1,269,739,404
446801500 126,330,000.00 706,385,694.61
400000001 19,000,000.00 452,482,882.79
245230000
2746680000 4,859,764,702 5,472,932,335
378320000 6,291,624.44 1,550,254,330.81
588550000 155,433,605.71 705,209,896.96
310982000 271,900,000.00 534,705,603.30
531794000 871,576,355.88
963575000 234,400,000.00 1,003,236,857.57
209978000 19,037,700.00 238,622,955.80
2202179475 129,000,000.00 2,014,522,206.52
594626300 107,740,000.00 662,872,164.14
841191500 266,020,000.00 967,118,447.70
1797342000 164,052,000.00 2,116,559,102.25
330000000 37,210,000.00
1829250000 619,584,257.99 1,739,550,737.98
197210000 169,160,000.00 364,356,907.78
11576084200 4,500,000,000.00
421322000 90,304,024.72 644,066,826.27
46020000
776441000 448,525,125.00 1,120,245,921.00
665250000 227,000,000.00 1,025,042,820.26
166335000 82,600,000.00 254,605,103.97
667700000
492147900 245,029,545.55 871,576,355.88
304290000 478,000,000.00 791,595,349.36
186200000 110,000,000.00 327,489,862.82
384000000 142,835,870.08 534,456,921.87
1701503300
384100000 248,256,000 395,801,000.00
698064900 0.00 747,109,565.95
1016755000 0.00 1,079,671,290.84
840550000 83,000,000.00 1,059,564,964.52
887924400
324720900 30,000,000.00 353,805,491.76
187800000 62,020,000.00 257,744,246.87
1300518352 1,006,953,100 2,007,897,806.00
270800000 114,300,000.00 73,985,084.77
99年净利润 99年总资产 98年净利润 98年总资产
600388 13,553,523.54 359,316,671.88 6,694,750.80 248,166,639.97
600399 98,945,303.38 2,051,625,852.77 66,938,134.23 1,830,690,097.41
600336 39,008,475.75 381,417,303.45 35,721,146.91 322,631,736.17
600398 26182735.32 177,353,222.20 2132298.27 28,265,620.39
600338 52,289,599.28 621,893,119.15 43,814,120.80 564,034,664.79
300306 18,425,724.26 321,853,120.70 17,535,032.87 425,114,944.12
600339 31,427,108.03 293,303,950.15 29,177,102.18 210,678,436.32
600323 23,683,439.36 464,239,665.70 19,529,661.97 454,699,897.98
600345 25,076,071.22 595,636,545.76 54,616,923.68 701,510,656.31
600328 32,011,320.51 549,469,565.89 25,040,859.82 549,478,905.06
600368 92,328,788.38 848,848,028.44 92,593,848.70 849,159,864.11
600307 142,554,558.50 1,870,468,696.07 184,144,756.04 1,735,777,815.76
600016 234,724,938.00 36,596,251,512.00 198126930 25352145663
600038 21,016,971.31 224,897,842.66 20,692,620.01 224,573,491.36
600316 30,056,359.47 253,082,270.40 27,443,014.06 210,446,707.86
600302 24,732,386.11 426,213,877.15 16,282,508.42 390,469,378.04
600019 2,274,926,309.41 35,900,699,408.15 1,237,832,928.89 37,308,781,189.68
600333 31,045,119.55 474,677,415.79 19,205,580.57 545,583,943.74
600318 41,847,315.67 508,966,893.23 25,026,881.63 426,075,182.98
600422 22,109,573.40 435,116,628.82 22,705,337.63 405,437,035.70
600252 31,009,075.39 329,385,214.09 25,320,377.46 350,739,009.69
600288 29,307,799.39 682,809,768.36 19,364,816 326,989,146
600241 29,512,054.25 291,836,406.18 29,284,913.12 269,639,012.64
600337 28,955,726.56 177,528,717.45 24,076,311.31 173,050,099.93
600247 17,159,548.19 281,630,072.91 19,881,004.35 228,018,833.56
600234 15,884,803.75 420,861,463.87 13,966,551.88 400,403,141.42
600297 17,249,983.81 370,635,760,69 12,251,945.27 375,241,322.37
600281 38,319,256.88 1,095,393,553.98 39,020,241.76 937,112,762.89
600290 1,544,749.67 220,067,373.94 2,685,304.40 228,548,983.48
600292 69,213,251.86 607,097,428.19 58,240,864.90 718,395,657.40
600366 39,008,475.75 381,417,303.45 35,721,146.91 322,631,736.17
600276 51,332,467.70 463,707,546.17 43,229,968.32 365,524,357.77
600285 21,764,951.64 175,023,127.74 23,954,742.35 125,632,628.49
600283 61,656,399.95 560,916,864.95 56,201,407.49 481,335,329.86
600308 70,408,879.08 971,365,716.86 63,593,692.76 736,239,578.06
600280 28,023,852.15 506,949,806.77 6,339,689.95 690,862,081.48
600358 20,298,867.33 309,829,037.25 24334364.61 270167225.8
600282 147,682,263.81 1,821,735,818.82 137,013,610.34 1,556,142,096.28
600293 46,892,181.69 695,892,724.29 42,806,298.83 709,386,753.49
600287 70,772,704.16 864,680,964.65 48,626,117.11 685,113,699.44
600265 21,135,094.31 287,562,906.89 17,897,437.01 238,155,658.19
600298 36,012,258.01 218,375,822.79 30,778,602.00 205,721,760.27
600275 57,318,749.31 322,412,632.53 47,509,337.22 258,270,590.40
600291 20,891,175.31 422,728,166.68 13,585,737.30 359,932,748.59
600279 32,015,002.68 214,328,631.91 18,730,110.99 121,701,664.41
600263 52,598,087.82 1,379,531,917.89 52,537,396.63 1,378,306,535.93
600267 49,456,631.01 672,120,215.60 47,303,715.14 483,698,076.58
600261 22,788,130.66 291,771,381.66 18046860.1 242391883.9
03年净利润 03年总资产 02年净利润 02年总资产
40,272,146.60 1,612,044,813.40 25,582,848.23 1,109,994,131.91
15,819,747.75 4,550,798,683.43 97,794,284.22 4,228,286,530.89
51,197,844.97 1,532,304,495.97 55,380,785.46 1,109,425,689.45
87,399,352.17 1,257,003,665.93 85,835,473.84 1,015,016,745.10
-429,030,946.28 436,448,943.48 -164,547,715.11 999,067,180.42
19,650,505.49 1,062,743,140.49 17,637,296.63 775,888,721.33
59,926,841.02 13,708,028,895.00 52,037,481.40 1,082,166,646.90
64,052,989.08 936,126,582.98 72,100,094.99 910,624,199.45
13,852,000.00 1,406,404,000.00 10,790,000.00 1,409,484,000.00
30,455,480.28 1,395,127,847.93 43,812,075.26 1,213,885,449.01
101,001,110.22 1,505,192,796.38 116,296,217.82 1,446,181,558.90
601,140,756.46 3,818,485,591.43 232,860,792.53 3,371,052,082.57
1,391,252,000.00 361,064,410,000.00 871,823,000.00 243,662,453,000.00
68,347,669.37 1,388,758,286.41 60,599,017.39 1,076,480,753.15
67,021,339.36 1,367,224,988.99 67,109,835.55 1,374,293,546.61
111,158,273.97 1,109,143,947.18 71,368,286.11 1,017,197,234.71
69,760,000.00 609,180,000.00 42,720,000.00 614,890,000.00
146,454,502.52 1,371,148,423.39 90,099,683.05 1,154,337,715.07
998,751,948.98 11,063,216,960.17 778,448,410.55 8,254,106,111.85
70,393,378.00 946,710,702.05 44,588,168.08 763,284,617.04
26,730,946.01 1,094,356,744.88 27,169,553.96 784,057,861.58
49,091,266.27 1,723,133,552.49 46,103,614.97 1,352,079,408.24
26,438,152.97 688,647,625.35 33,290,210.50 669,387,238.69
39,449,931.52 1,048,106,305.29 39,979,819.54 904,696,007.40
16,906,703.49 568,155,461.11 21,809,218.51 586,110,175.28
20,785,977.67 792,221,445.71 -140,801,426.72 583,725,626.76
13,447,866.36 1,054,894,151.47 23,957,132.75 925,623,595.89
31,384,324.05 2,298,055,265.67 21,630,433.09 1,996,566,040.72
11,382,289.26 532,985,065.77 10,171,075.52 484,945,293.02
69,764,438.93 2,264,188,138.24 70,182,525.46 1,529,246,098.15
51,197,844.97 1,532,304,495.97 55,380,785.46 1,109,425,689.45
94,519,994.87 1,450,686,564.28 78,953,996.69 1,204,575,770.68
14,176,096.80 741,336,467.60 13,086,339.98 697,745,052.89
27,760,744.29 1,568,357,368.14 48,568,609.86 1,568,557,497.09
225,884,038.88 3,382,597,405.36 190,099,673.18 2,752,480,555.06
38,200,541.68 1,466,516,749.95 29,834,891.92 1,047,730,360.10
7,210,922.77 291,632,118.30 9,896,681.21 575,709,238.31
489,538,131.18 4,883,219,422.55 243,154,991.57 3,209,713,580.58
8,084,594.52 1,296,874,954.47 5,378,658.04 1,092,675,352.55
172,453,660.20 2,543,947,588.93 90,202,163.67 1,807,303,848.19
11,561,843.75 861,453,817.15 21,253,401.00 711,347,116.62
41,480,822.71 778,961,127.18 29,502,390.40 725,881,561.06
1,092,231.68 2,661,613,609.48 35,363,857.66 2,603,096,649.40
47,977,256.96 1,316,947,674.73 35063，371.49 1,140,871,781.54
23,469,448.35 885,841,589.45 23,733,880.17 800,604,590.64
33,540,265.02 3,000,686,928.39 24,090,675.21 2,983,119,537.29
169,958,410.58 1,873,739,312.11 71,185,161.79 1,575,521,723.81
50,941,649.95 937,263,700.76 45,845,161.65 868,069,834.35
偿债筹资金 募资总额 筹资总额
223,805,000.00 468,000,000.00 615,297,377.92
0.00 633,920,000.00 666,590,000.00
31,950,000.00 784,000,000.00 819,650,835.24
0.00 436,500,000.00 446,836,856.32
202,800,000.00 393,987,500.00 621,855,785.27
29,700,000.00 266,854,231.28 307,421,754.65
78,000,000.00 426,535,200.00 533,028,242.94
21,351,000.00 408,250,000.00 428,059,973.87
135,778,143.08 354,600,000.00 461,434,326.86
107,100,000.00 452,651,200.00 561,415,445.52
0.00 424,120,000.00 440,112,876.91
567,330,000.00 1,070,000,000.00 1,591,333,737.03
0.00 4,088,745,000.00 3,489,081
171,500,000.00 456,000,000.00 548,813,750.87
70,100,000.00 878,270,000.00 962,120,421.28
15,384,226.08 392,614,000.00 420,868,459.42
15,659,003,454.56 25,418,900,000.00 14763860000
179,900,000.00 344,080,000.00 484,072,641.27
377,100,000.00 391,200,000.00 866,206,752.46
244,456,000.00 393,430,000.00 588,521,543.17
93,834,000.00 224,550,000.00 302,604,013.57
10,310,000.00 437,810,000.00 73,747,744.16
83,200,000.00 204,213,300.00 290,513,972.79
72411917.9 509237400 619,736,363.56
6500000 160170000 170,724,439.62
102516000 235950000 172,247,399.97
57101000 375168000 428,847,334.07
52960000 557550000 707,427,974.44
111400000 135500000 231,362,849.91
455481166 521692000 907,136,861.08
402700000 348456000 856,715,215.45
285550000 466600000 772,130,215.32
155526900 274500000 487,152,837.17
130883710 487380000 836,871,227.49
846,400,000.00 1060400000 2,261,089,261.55
348,000,000.00 212300000 615,297,377.92
80052640 284500000 407,138,573.07
433383200 755200000 763,586,872.85
88839970.85 456500000 647,733,878.27
609810000 408960000 1,033,497,214.17
20000000 195900000 224,281,000.00
97100000 400787000 34,171,101.44
50000000 475300000 599,336,348.97
10651173.36 366650000 386,140,000.00
20800000 515920000 589,619,553.96
324901577.1 814710000 1,318,340,303.01
304709411.5 473200000 732,184,671.72
191146000 379200000 505,540,319.46
附表2：相关变量数据
Y X1 X2 X3 X4 X5
0.022236503 0.839883 0 1 0.439863116
0.042206197 1.368781 0 0 0.160608339
-0.003627638 0.125014 0 0 0.425284452 1
0.017745448 1.097253 0 0 0.178839975
0.012860437 1.936788 0 0 0.041990539
0.024745252 0.84884 0 1 #DIV/0!
-0.006604601 0.107553 0 0 0.887963601 1
0.015130603 1.132585 0 0 0.004058447
0.010347021 0.485511 0 0 0.220407578
-0.027919246 0.897946 0 0 0.508504116
0.070640149 0.728385 0 0 0
0.003619305 0.89269 0 1 0.233643729
0.042977837 1.082361 0 0 0.079781511
0.034578012 1.176252 0 1 0.064035035
0.019793398 1.155736 0 0 0.16253511
0.019992414 1.251773 0 0 0.275064549
0.034556252 0.988474 0 1 0.077508821
0.027238901 1.176543 0 0 #DIV/0!
0.007419083 0.521813 0 1 0.35617487
0.01636412 0.948581 0 1 0.464270051
-0.011383431 0.086017 0 1 #DIV/0! 1
-0.003408729 1.622958 1 0 0.140209092
0.004560194 0.254403 0 0 #DIV/0!
0.028507472 0.824247 0 1 0.400380949 1
0.046159778 0.996629 0 0 0.221454163
0.037496635 0.944755 0 1 0.324423975
0.038106479 1.164052 0 0 #DIV/0!
0.032230415 0.994073 0 1 0.281133769
0.014932466 1.002501 0 1 0.603843871
0.01254905 0.758143 0 1 0.335888259
0.023618833 0.938416 1 0 0.267254224
0.094415666 1.157822 0 1 #DIV/0! 1
0.009027369 0.254054 0 1 0.627224287 1
0.012717751 0.86997 0 1 0
0.035910994 0.814708 0 1 0 1
0.099782532 1.333893 0 1 0.078334036
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 0 #DIV/0!
0.003863437 1.441493 0 0 0.084792353
0.018137596 0.840268 1 1 0.240626127
0.018399646 0.526074 0 0 0.50149619 1
-0.004708459 0.551079 1 1 1.544905981
Y X1 X4 X2 X3
0.0083337 3.670588235 0.363734688 0 0
0.0290937 0.954698795 0 0 1
0.0648299 1.884880227 0.038980013 0 1
0.0344864 5.666311743 0 1 0
0.6547331 1.933443755 0.326120629 0 0
0.0286373 2.266277973 0.096609949 1 1
0.0965909 2.454172612 0.146333709 0 0
-0.026817 0.471463877 0.049878525 0 0
0.0512256 2.761682243 0.294252367 0 0
0.0229541 2.609159225 0.190767819 1 1
0.0351467 4.345491803 0 0 0
-0.022102 1.299048174 0.356512268 0 1
0.0033989 2.668761737 0 0 0
0.0400422 9.156626506 0.31249217 1 1
0.0756563 7.222615132 0.072859902 0 1
-0.035327 2.34849071 0.036553526 1 1
-0.043723 1.783502102 1.06063072 0 1
-0.04213 1.255408678 0.371638437 0 1
-0.021814 2.063291139 0.43534641 0 1
-0.012978 9.800419488 0.41537307 0 0
0.0536276 1.58836882 0.310088419 0 0
0.0197781 2.432277778 0.139800886 0 0
0.0608047 1.677917513 0.286388979 0 1
0.1102015 8.42929644 0.1168431 1 0
0.0405761 1.160652174 0.038073049 1 0
0.1437994 1.800265519 0.595167184 0 0
#VALUE! 3.290947368 0.133149947 0 1
0.0260651 1.403125491 0.074862745 0 1
-0.01178 1.98186339 0.48149476 0 1
0.0591859 2.672670919 0.502108541 0 0
0.0648299 2.283452694 0.470051182 0 1
0.049134 2.9081653 0.369821041 0 0
0.1385751 #DIV/0! 0.319256891 0 0
0.0890089 1.564959307 0.156396475 0 0
0.0115088 3.934623798 0.374332856 1 0
0.0049658 1.038455281 0.565580177 1 0
0.0568357 2.087644374 0.196622588 0 0
-0.003446 2.434045458 0.567562402 0 1
0.0582853 1.828926282 0.137155048 0 0
0.017562 1.813051048 0.590045132 0 1
0.0526742 1.950709485 0.089173849 1 1
0.1103137 3.457871356 2.841582387 0 1
0.1738684 2.369469144 0.083425609 0 0
#VALUE! 2.32056962 0.027583709 1 0
0.1235682 3.06277576 0.035276985 0 1
0.0284958 2.002390856 0.246447428 0 1
0.0177458 1.997703401 0.416164696 0 1
0.0226959 4.3427472 0.378102384 1 0
